On the 20th of August, football journo Vince Rugari published a piece outlining some concerns about the A-League’s potential move to winter, primarily by pointing to data published by Streem.
Streem conducts media monitoring and analysis and generated data showing the number of items in major print and online media attributable to major sporting leagues in Australia.
The article suggests the A-League will struggle to compete for media attention in the winter against the other codes.
This is generally understood and accepted however in analysing national share the data fails to adequately address the fact historical data has limited ability to forecast the futre, as well as failing to take into account the following:
This data shows share of mainstream media – not quantity of mainstream media
A-League peak times are also the least active times in the data from other codes. Although share is important aggregate number of stories may not be as impacted by a winter shift. Because if the season moves to winter so do all the match preivews, reviews, promotions and feature articles.
See below data not featured in the article.
Data does not provide clear indication of fan or market preference
A winter switch would require many A-League fans to be more selective with their time. Do they read A-League articles or AFL articles? Moving to a more competitive market will likely impact A-League interest, but it will also impact AFL and NRL interest (although to a lesser extent) as some people simply prefer football.
The data is misleading when looking at the whole Australian market
Things are very different either side of the Barassi Line. The Northern states love their NRL and southern states love their AFL.
This brings into focus a key strategic characteristic of the A-League – the consistency of football culture around Australia.
The A-League and football are ingrained in Australian DNA but not as much as much as the dominant sports of each state – which brings into question the direct competition the A-League will face in winter.
So I pose these questions.
Will people in NSW and QLD prefer to read about the A-League or AFL?
Will people in VIC, SA and WA prefer to read about the A-League or NRL?
The competitive threat of a winter A-League switch may not be as the article may indicate.
Unfortunately I guess we’ll find out next year when the League gives it a go!
The Beautiful Game 